Apple's air experiment doubles plus share, but 18 plus ghost already knocks
apple buried the iPhone Plus twice; the cadaver keeps texting. Internal Speedtest telemetry from Ookla shows the iPhone Air—last year’s 5.6 mm wafer that replaced the Plus line—grabbed 6.8 % of active U.S. devices in Q4 2025, more than double the 2.9 % its predecessor mustered the year before. The numbers aren’t unit sales, yet they map real pockets, real commutes, real latency tests. Translation: the Air isn’t loved, merely tolerated better than the Plus ever was.
The plus curse in one chart
Start with the mini’s 5.4-inch flop, continue through three consecutive Plus models whose only trick was “same guts, bigger battery,” and you arrive at a 2.9 % ceiling. The Air cracked it by selling thinness as a feature instead of screen acreage, especially in Seoul and Tokyo where subway thumbs value millimeters over milliamps. apple marketing finally located a narrative for the fourth slot: vanity over volume.
Still, 6.8 % is a rounding error beside the base and Pro tiers. The Air’s solo camera and shrunk cell remain compromise purchases, not destination devices. Analysts at TechCurrent note the Air’s attach rate for AppleCare+ trails the Pro Max by 28 %, a proxy for buyer enthusiasm. People pick it up, then insure it like a budget phone.
Why the 18 plus rumor refuses to die
Supply-chain whispers out of Taiwan claim a 6.7-inch non-Pro panel is again in test builds for 2026, reanimating the Plus badge. apple’s own carrier partners have lobbied for a large-screen model below Pro pricing; big-box retail slots are coded but empty. The logic: keep the Air for thinness fetishists, resurrect Plus for battery maximalists who balk at Pro Max tariffs.
That bifurcation collides with Cook’s obsession with SKU discipline. Every extra model chews logistics, packaging, and precious NAND allocation. Yet the Air’s modest victory gives finance chief Luca Maestra ammunition: the fourth tier can monetize if segmented by form factor rather than performance. Expect a knife-fight in the product roadmap room this spring.
Bottom line: the Air proved apple can juice a 3 % niche to 6 % with cosmetic engineering. The 18 Plus rumor is the market’s way of asking whether Cupertino will push that trick to ten, or finally let the fourth child starve. apple’s answer will reveal how desperate it is to plug every price pixel on the shelf.