Apple’s first foldable will hijack 28% of samsung’s turf within months
Seven years of hinge tweaks and crease-hiding polymers have bought Samsung a 40% slice of the foldable pie in 2025. By next Christmas that number shrinks to 31%, according to fresh Counterpoint numbers leaked this week, and the thief wearing the turtleneck isn’t even on shelves yet.
The 3% gap that keeps samsung awake
Apple’s rookie foldable—still nicknamed iPhone Fold inside Cupertino, still lacking an official name outside—is projected to seize 28% of global foldable shipments in its first 15 months. Samsung would cling to the top spot by the margin of a rounding error. Translate the percentages into the 20% segment growth that analysts pencil in for 2026 and the picture gets brutal: Apple ships roughly 20 million bendy iPhones, Samsung barely clears 22 million. After seven generations of Galaxy Z phones, Samsung’s reward is a statistical dead heat.
The bleeding doesn’t stop there. Huawei is expected to tumble from 30% to 23%, Motorola’s share drops from 12% to 8%, and Honor free-falls from 7% to 3%. Google’s Pixel Fold line flatlines at 1%. Apple doesn’t just enter the market—it vacuums loyalty from every corner while expanding the whole category, the same trick the original iPhone pulled on Palm and BlackBerry in 2007.
Why the forecast feels real this time
Supply-chain memos peg mass production starting in July, with 20 million panels already ordered from Samsung Display—yes, Samsung will profit from its own predator. Price chatter points to a $1,699 tag, dead-on with the expected Galaxy Z Fold 7. More importantly, Apple’s silicon team has been stress-testing iPadOS multitasking on folding hardware for three years; the software gap that crippled early Android foldables simply doesn’t exist here.
Still, 28% is a ceiling, not a prophecy. Carrier subsidies, yield rates on ultra-thin glass, and consumer fatigue after four-figure repairs could shave five million units off Apple’s tally overnight. But the directional arrow is carved in stone: every month Apple delays, Samsung bleeds; every day it ships, Samsung’s lead narrows.
2027 Isn’t a question anymore
Counterpoint won’t publish 2027 projections—too many variables, they say. Translate that as: too embarrassing for Samsung. The Korean giant’s roadmap shows iterative battery bumps and another clamshell spin-off, while Apple’s second-gen foldable is already locked for spring 2027 with titanium rails and a built-in stylus. Once the gap closes to 3%, gravity takes over. Samsung will wake up a fast follower in the segment it invented.
The foldable wars ended the moment Apple called the category worth entering. The only fight left is how politely Tim Cook lets Samsung keep the crown for twelve more months.